China

I think China is the next big thing to rise into world politics and not the EU. I suspect that China will set the agenda during the next 20 years. At the end of the next 20 years China will be positioned as the only world power that can match the US on the world stage. Why you ask? Because China has the military structure to be a mover and shaker and the EU does not. Diplomacy can only go just so far before it bumps into battleships, aircraft, and tanks. The projection of power cannot just be economics. It must have its war machine to back it up.

Recently the US has been the power to back up the economics of most of the western world but it will not be able to keep it up for long. I expect that China will slowly match the US step for step. In China, there are potentially over 206,000,000 men fit for duty in the military. This is two thirds of the whole population of the US. In China, military service is compulsory with a 2-year commitment when an individual turns 18. There are currently 2.8 million men in uniform. The US has 1.3 million. China exports more arms per Gross Domestic Product than the US so the war machine infrastructure is there.

But China and the US are decreasing their military. China by 28% and the US by 37%. We will run out of military before they will. Most of the world’s military growth is in the African and Islamic countries. Still China has the ability to turn up the heat very quickly.

China needs oil just like the US does. It is already beginning to shop the worlds oil markets to supply its rapidly growing economy. With it’s growth comes an unquenchable appetite for more oil as the reserves decrease. They have gone to Russia to bargain for their reserves in Siberia but lost in a bidding war with Japan. As it is, there is the equivalent of a pipeline on the wheels of a railway between China and Siberia.

What happens when the cheap oil reserves are gone? Never fear, there is enough oil to supply the whole world into the next century but the only question is, “at what cost.”
Cheap oil will be gone soon. Maybe as soon as 20 years from now. That’s when the players will reshuffle the deck. In the meantime the chess game goes on. And the US has its players in the middle of the known reserves. Popular politics says we will move our forces out as soon as we can. Power politics says we have our pieces right where we want them. Even the Caspian Sea has American troops near by.

Yet, is a conflict inevitable? Maybe not, if the US is willing or able to do without oil 20 years from now. Technology anyone?